2024 Update

The Wall Street Journal released its latest poll on the 2024 contest over the holiday weekend. It was the first poll the paper has conducted since the spring and since a string of four indictments were issued against former President Trump. The Journal conceded that Donald Trump is now dominating the race. Consider this excerpt:

“The new survey finds that what was once a two-man race for the nomination has collapsed into a lopsided contest in which Trump, for now, has no formidable challenger.  The former president is the top choice of 59% of GOP primary voters, up 11 percentage points since April. . .  Trump’s lead over his top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has nearly doubled since April to 46 percentage points.”

In a general election rematch, Trump and Biden were tied at 46%. With third party candidates factored in, Trump led Biden 40% to 39%.

I mention this because some GOP elites still cling to the myth that any candidate other than Donald Trump would be a stronger general election candidate against Biden. But there’s just no evidence for that.

Republican voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump is the strongest candidate against Biden, and the polls bear that out. According to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump and Biden are tied, while DeSantis trails Biden by five points.